9 December 2021
On 9 December, the MGIMO Institute for International Studies (IMI MGIMO) and the MGIMO consulting agency “Eurasian Strategies” held the VI Moscow Conference on Political Risks and Forecasting "International Uncertainty 2022".
In his opening remarks, Anatoly Torkunov, Rector of the MGIMO University, noted the importance of international discussions in this format. "We get a unique opportunity to hear different points of view based on different sources. Discussing pressing topics at the international level allows us to get a clearer and more definite picture. Holding traditional meetings on international relations foresight at MGIMO is extremely important," the rector believes.
Alexey Drobinin, acting Director of the Department for Foreign Policy Planning of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, spoke about the growing uncertainty on the international stage. "By and large, the world now has every opportunity to solve the problems it is facing. This requires political will, it is necessary to come to a common understanding of the modern era," the diplomat said.
Andrey Sushentsov, Acting Dean of the Faculty of International Relations, agreed with the speakers and noted: "When we started the cycle of our annual conferences on political risks and forecasting six years ago, we used the term 'uncertainty' not coincidentally. It is a key characteristic of contemporary international relations. At the end of each year, we find it hard to tell what the next year holds".
The first session of the conference was a special one entitled "The Universal Diplomat for the 21st Century". Karin Kneissl, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Austria and Visiting Professor at the MGIMO University (Austria), Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of the “Russia in Global Affairs” Journal, Samuel Charap, Senior Political Scientist of RAND Corporation (USA), and Konstantin Kolpakov, Chairman of the Council of young diplomats of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, participated in it. The experts discussed what kind of skills and worldview young analysts and foreign service officials should have against the background of the crumbling international order and security institutions of the second half of the 20th century.
The main sessions focused on the development of the US-China rivalry and threats it poses to other players: Russia, key EU countries, Turkey and Central Asian states. The sessions featured presentations by leading Russian and foreign international scholars and practitioners involved in strategic planning amidst international uncertainty. Specialists from Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, China, the Republic of Korea, Serbia, Turkey, Germany, Italy, France, Belgium, Georgia, and the United States participated in the conference onsite and via Zoom.
At the session 'The US, China and Russia in the Pacific: Towards New Confrontation?' Qi Huaigao, Professor and Vice Dean of the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University (China), Andrey Baklitskiy, Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Advanced American Studies (IMI), Michael Cofman, Senior Research Fellow at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center (USA), and Andrey Lankov, Professor of the Kookmin University (Republic of Korea), discussed how world politics will change amidst the US-China rivalry, and what threats and opportunities the new situation poses for other powers in the Pacific and beyond. The session was moderated by Igor Denisov, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for East Asian and SCO Studies (IMI).
The new era challenges the EU to forge a new foreign policy strategy. The topical role of the EU in the US-China rivalry and its new course towards Eurasia were discussed by Peer Teschendorf, Head of the Representative Office of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Russia (Germany), Raffaele Marchetti, Professor and Deputy Rector of LUISS University (Italy), Artem Sokolov, Research Fellow of the Centre for European Studies, Sim Tack, Founder and Leading Analyst of Force Analysis (Belgium), Michael Cofman, Senior Research Fellow at the Kennan Institute of Woodrow Wilson International Center (USA). The session was moderated by Maxim Suchkov, acting Director of the Institute for International Studies.
At the session "Central Asia and the South Caucasus between the Post-Soviet Space and the Greater Middle East", experts discussed how manageable the situation is in the two regions and how dangerous the tensions between the most influential actors there are. Sergey Markedonov, Leading Research Fellow of the Institute for International Studies and Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of International Analytics, explored these issues together with Hasan Ozertem, Independent Political Analyst from Turkey, Hrant Mikaelyan, Research Fellow from the Caucasus Institute (Armenia), Olesya Vartanyan, Senior Analyst for the South Caucasus of the International Crisis Group (Georgia), Adil Kaukenov, Director of the Centre for Chinese Studies “China Center” (Kazakhstan), Kubat Rahimov, Executive Director of the Public Foundation “Applicata Centre” (Kyrgyzstan), Akram Umarov, Senior Research Fellow of the University of World Economy and Diplomacy (Uzbekistan).
The final session focused on the policy of economic sanctions, which is becoming increasingly widespread around the globe. Yauheni Preiherman, Director of the Council on International Relations “Minsk Dialogue” (Belarus), Aleksandar Zivotic, Professor of the Department of the history of Yugoslavia at the Faculty of philosophy of the University of Belgrade (Serbia), Mikhail Mamonov, Director of the Centre for International Economy Studies (IMI), Michael Cofman, Senior Research Fellow at the Kennan Institute of Woodrow Wilson International Center (USA), Adlan Margoev, Research Fellow of the Centre for Middle East Studies (IMI), discussed the real impact of sanctions on the global economy. The session was moderated by Ekaterina Arapova, Director of the Centre for Sanction Policy Expertise (IMI).
The conference ended with a working dinner where the annual MGIMO forecast International Threats 2022 was presented. Andrey Sushentsov, Acting Dean of the School of International Relations, Nikolai Silaev, Director of the Laboratory of International Trends Analysis (IMI), William Wohlforth, Professor of Dartmouth College (USA), Michael Cofman, Senior Research Fellow at the Kennan Institute of Woodrow Wilson International Center (USA) and other participants discussed the main challenges and threats that await the international community in the upcoming year.
In 2020, the conference "International Uncertainty" was held onsite and via Zoom, while in 2019 the presentation of the annual report was held at TASS.
Such high-profile events with the participation of international experts contribute to the “Priority 2030” programme and aim to elevate the international prestige of research conducted at the MGIMO University.
Broadcast recordings of the conference sessions are available on the MGIMO YouTube channel in English and Russian.
